Experts Call for ‘New Marshall Plan’ for Ukraine

With war still raging, it might be premature to talk of post-war reconstruction in Ukraine. But with EU candidate status seen off the table for now, a 21st century 'Marshall Plan' could pave the way for European integration, without leaving grey zones for hostile actors to target.

Creativity is highly sought after in European capitals when it comes to the Ukrainian crisis. Besides humanitarian help and arms supplies to Ukraine, alongside economic sanctions against Russia, European politicians, experts and civil society are asking what else the West can do to help Kyiv.

An often-recurring idea is to anchor Ukraine to the EU, perhaps fast-tracking candidate status to reward it for its heroism and sacrifices. But political reality often clashes with high morals, and instead of “what should be done”, experts say politicians need to settle with “what can be done”.

For the Ukrainians, candidate status is a cherished aim. At the Time To Decide Europe Summit, organized by the Erste Foundation and Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) on May 20, Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba openly pleaded for the EU to give Ukraine candidate status at its June 23–24 summit, while being fully aware that it would not translate into fast-track membership.

Here is where creativity comes into the picture: experts gathered at the summit said the EU needs to offer something which is meaningful, has an imminent effect and contributes to the future reconstruction of the country.

Destruction in human lives and physical infrastructure have been massive in Ukraine. But every crisis holds an opportunity, pointed out Serhii Plokhy, professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard University.

Plokhy argued that the Russian aggression is not only destroying buildings and physical infrastructure, but the remnants of Ukraine’s Soviet past, which opens up a real chance to build a new, modern, 21st century Ukraine. Trust in state institutions, in parliament and the president himself, traditionally low, have grown immensely in the last few months. And a previously deeply divided society has been spectacularly reunited in the fight for sovereignty.

While it might open up an opportunity for a political rebirth of the country, massive help will be needed from the global community to take advantage of it. Plokhy urged the West – but basically the EU – to come up with a new Marshall Plan in the same vein as the US program that provided more than $15 billion to help finance rebuilding efforts in Germany and Europe following World War II.

Yet others were quick to caution that given Ukraine’s oligarch-dominated, corruption-riddled economy, money should go hand-in-hand with strict supervision and control of the funds.

Ukrainian servicemen patrol the territory close to a front line near the small city of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, 31 May 2022. EPA-EFE/STR

The ‘Grey Zone’

Plokhy also criticised the EU’s laggard approach to Ukraine, which he said had helped pave the way for the Russian invasion. “Ukraine has been a grey zone, a no-man’s land, which gave up its nuclear weapons but received only empty messages ever since. The war is a wake-up call for the EU not to let it happen again,” he said.

But post-war times might still be months, if not years, ahead. Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, brought the discussion back to earth by pointing out that, “Putin might not be able to win this war, but he will try to make sure that Ukraine will not win it either.”

As long as the Russian army is ruthlessly destroying whatever it can, it makes little sense to talk about rebuilding the country, at least not in a physical sense, she said.

Tocci also warned that Ukraine needs to be rebuilt politically as well, and cementing in a “civil form” of nationalism is far from a done deal. “Nationalism and liberalism can go hand in hand for a while, but they can diverge, leading to a backsliding like in Hungary,” she said.

Florence Gaub, deputy director of the EU Institute of Security Studies, was also cautious, stressing that ending a war does not only mean the cessation of military campaigns and destruction, but ending the conflict itself, which can take much longer.

“The question is not ‘when’ but ‘how’: every bad peace fathers new conflicts,” she reminded attendees at the summit, warning that no quick solution is on the horizon.