The candidates
Marki-Zay, who has managed to beat Fidesz twice in elections in his hometown, has a radically different world view from Dobrev: he is a devout Catholic with seven children, has a liberal free-market economic policy and, in many aspects like family policy, he seems to have more in common with Fidesz than with the left-wing opposition of which he is part.
His main asset is that he is a newcomer and portrays himself as a symbol of change. He is campaigning hard against Dobrev, arguing that only he can bring together all those who want to get rid of Orban – meaning not only people on the left, but in the centre and, perhaps, even lure disenchanted Fidesz voters on the right.
Yet Dobrev has her own strong points. She is a highly intelligent and accomplished woman, a persuasive speaker, tough campaigner, and boasts impressive experience for one who seeks to run Hungary. She holds a degree both in economics and the law, has served in the Hungarian public administration at various positions, and is currently the vice-president of the European Parliament. Being a mother of three and speaking four languages, she forms a picture of the almost perfect candidate.
Yet biographies are seldom perfect in Hungary. On the down side is her family background. Dobrev is married to Ferenc Gyurcsany, the former – and today still very controversial – prime minister and current chairman of the leftist-liberal Democratic Coalition.
Gyurcsany, who made his first millions as a businessman during the turbulent years after the collapse of communism, entered politics in the early 2000s. He made international headlines with a speech in 2006 admitting that he lied during the election campaign and did not disclose the real (dire) state of the Hungarian economy to voters. The speech was mysteriously leaked and led to violent street protests, with the police using rubbers batons and tear gas. His government was further shaken by the 2008 financial crisis, which ultimately led to his resignation in 2009, leaving a caretaker cabinet to pick up the pieces and paving the way for the first supermajority in parliament for Orban and his Fidesz party in 2010.
Gyurcsany is now widely remembered as the politician who “screwed up” the country – an image carefully burnished by Fidesz propaganda. Launching a political career in Hungary as “Gyurcsany’s wife” requires courage, for sure.
“I have always been interested in politics, but never really on the frontlines,” she tells BIRN.
The moment of reckoning came after the 2018 parliamentary election, when Fidesz won its third landslide. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) later described the election free but not fair, and suspicion of electoral fraud was raised after the software of the National Election Office collapsed and the website was not available for two hours.
“I remember the disappointment on people’s faces the next morning. But I actually woke up with the feeling that now it is my turn, it is time to change this country,” she says.
But there are other skeletons in her closet. Dobrev herself comes from a prominent communist family, with a grandfather who helped suppress Hungary’s 1956 uprising against Soviet rule and the Communist dictatorship. Her mother was also high up in the Communist nomenclature, being deputy minister of trade before the democratic transition and serving briefly as chief of staff to the Socialist prime minister Gyula Horn in 1994 – a biography not necessary appealing to many Hungarians who demand real change, not just the exchange of one powerful family for another.
Dobrev previously distanced herself from her grandfather but has not done so from her husband, who is the founder and chairman of the Democratic Coalition she is standing for and who cannot help grinning at her side at most press events.
“Klara Dobrev used to be a very discreet First Lady when her husband was the prime minister, but this does not seem to apply the other way round,” a journalist who didn’t want to quoted by name tells BIRN.
“Voters care about their future, about their security and about their welfare rather than who-did-what in my family long ago,” Dobrev insists, when asked about her family affiliations. “The latest polls indicate that I am the most suitable candidate to defeat Orban.”
Perhaps. But political scientist Julia Lakatos, from the Centre for Fair Political Analysis, argues it is still a huge drawback for Dobrev. “Dobrev is trying to play down this issue, but her background could make her an easy target for Orban and Fidesz in the election campaign. She is the ideal rival for Orban. The government party will put her husband, Ferenc Gyurcsany, at the centre of the campaign, and tell voters that it is Gyurcsany who will actually return and pull the strings in the background.”
Pollster Tibor Zavecz also tells BIRN it is still too early to say who between Dobrev and Marki-Zay would have a better chance of defeating Orban. “I do not think it is really decisive who wins the primaries. At the moment, the opposition and government are neck-to-neck in our polls. But the opposition needs to mobilize better, Fidesz is usually good at that,” he warns.
Zavecz believes that the main message of the primaries is that the opposition is capable of running with a joint list and a joint prime ministerial candidate, who will be backed by all six parties.
Klara Dobrev agrees. “The gamechanger is the unity of the opposition. The Fidesz government will not be defeated by this or that candidate, but by the united opposition.”
However, some analysts fear that the second round of the primaries, with all the associated intense and emotional atmosphere – Marki-Zay has accused opposition voters of being unpatriotic if they don’t vote for him – could cause cracks to appear in the fragile unity
Stop the cock fight!
While many agree that having a female prime minister would be a sign of progress in Hungary, where no women has reached the highest political office since the democratic transition, the political analyst Lakatos says the gender question currently does not play a central role in the campaign. Rather, she says, in a deeply polarised society like Hungary’s, what counts far more is where you stand vis-a-vis Viktor Orban, and not whether the candidate is a woman or a man.
Nevertheless, Pollster Zavecz points out that even though Dobrev stresses her professional competences more than her gender in her public appearances, it remains true that she scores highly amongst women voters.
Dobrev herself believes that Hungarian society is still not used to having women in politics, and recalls Orban’s famous bon mot in 2015, when he allegedly said that “Hungarian politics is not for women”.
But change is clearly on the horizon – even Orban brought two powerful women into his cabinet recently. “I still find it astonishing that the ratio of women in Hungarian politics is the lowest not just in the EU, but in Europe altogether, including countries like Albania and Macedonia. After 10 years of a macho Fidesz government, I believe it is high time to finally have a female prime minister to stop this ‘cock fighting’,” Klara Dobrev tells BIRN.
Uphill task
Most agree that whoever wins the primaries and leads Hungary’s opposition into battle, they will face a monumental task.
One of the biggest challenges will be to bring together a deeply divided society and bring rational debate back into politics. Dobrev says her plans are to reinstate democracy, a system based on checks and balances, a free media and the fight against corruption.
“We have to make Hungary a just country and bring all those to justice who piled up incredibly high fortunes in illegal ways,” Dobrev says, alluding to Lorinc Meszaros, a former gas fitter from Orban‘s village, Felcsut, whose wealth is estimated at 1.3 billion euros or the prime minister’s son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, who is only 35 but has already amassed a fortune of at least 89 million euros.
Dobrev says it not just ethical norms but the fear of Hungary losing its international competitiveness that drives her program. “6 per cent of Hungary’s GDP is used for so-called direct economic support – this is not only a source of corruption, but it is killing off competition. Those who have access to government money, or have friends in the government, automatically receive funding while the rest of us can only dream about it. This amount of money should be transferred to sectors that will enhance the country’s competitiveness.”
She also underlines that in the 21st century the only countries that can be competitive are those where the state provides high quality and efficient services. “You cannot have economic growth with a disintegrated society,” she says.
But the election next April is likely to have much broader implications than merely creating a just society or competitive economy. The real question is Hungary’s long-term relationship with the European Union.
“What’s at stake in next year’s election is: Orban or Europe,” Dobrev claims.
She predicts that if the prime minister is reelected in April, Hungary will not remain a member of the EU over the medium term. “Orban says he does not want to leave the EU, but he did not want to leave the European People’s Party either,” she says, referring to Orban’s long-running feud with the European political grouping of Christian-democratic and conservative and parties, which culminated last year with Fidesz leaving.
“Fidesz was expelled. Orban is no longer in control of events,” she warns.
