Turkish Threat over ISIS Fighters Poses Challenge for Balkans

Turkey says it is ‘not a hotel’ for ISIS fighters from Europe. But Balkan states are ill-equipped to handle their return.

Countries in the Balkans are fast facing a new challenge stemming from the war in Syria – Turkish pressure for the repatriation of hundreds of Islamic State fighters and their families.

A new bargaining chip in Turkey’s relationship with Europe, experts say the process of bringing home the fighters will prove a major test of Balkan states.

“Generally, no one in the world is ready to accept foreign fighters because it is a new international phenomenon,” said Sarajevo-based independent security analyst Safet Music. “Of course, developed countries can cope with this problem more easily than Balkan countries.”

“We can say there are experts who could deal with this issue. The legislation is regulated as well. But there are no means for the de-radicalization process, and no space for the accommodation of former ISIS members and their families.”

Burak Bilgehan Ozpek, a professor of international relations at Ankara’s TOBB University, said that, like the issue of Syrian refugees and their flow through Turkey to the European Union, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would use the ISIS fighters as leverage for Western acquiescence to his policy on neighbouring Syria.

“Along with the refugee card, former ISIS fighters and their families are another lever for Erdogan in his relations with the West,” Ozpek told BIRN.

“Erdogan tries to show to European countries which did not support Turkey’s military operation that Turkey is part of the European security system over this issue.”

Ankara: We’re not a hotel for terrorists

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Photo: EPA-EFE/ERIK S. LESSER

Turkey’s military intervention in Syria in October, hot on the heels of a US withdrawal, has injected new uncertainty into the issue of ISIS fighters and their families from Europe. Turkey says it is acting against ‘terrorists’, including ISIS.

“We are not a hotel for any country’s terrorists,” Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said on November 13 as Erdogan met US President Donald Trump at the White House. “The EU and others do not have a policy for them but we have and we will implement it.”

The Erdogan-Trump meeting produced no clear way forward.

It is not known exactly how many ISIS fighters and family members are originally from the Balkans, but most come from Kosovo, Bosnia, Albania and North Macedonia, while a smaller number are citizens of Montenegro and Serbia.

Kosovo and Bosnia have accepted some of their nationals who fought in Syria and are making preparations to receive others.

“Of course, former ISIS members pose a security threat in their home countries, but if they are prosecuted and subjected to a de-radicalisation program and overseen by security agencies, this threat will be significantly reduced,” Music told BIRN.

While states would necessarily take a more benevolent approach to women and children, he said, “it is necessary to determine which of the women participated in any of the ISIS formations and whether they had combat tasks and need to be processed.”

Bosnia’s deputy Security Minister, Mijo Kresic, said on November 13 that Bosnia would receive any returning fighters from Syrian and Iraqi battlefields who have Bosnian citizenship, and that they would be treated according to law.

As for Kosovo, Interior Minister Ekrem Mustafa told Radio Free Europe this month that Pristina was in talks with Ankara on preparations for the return of another 100 Kosovo citizens from Syria, following 110 repatriated in April, including a number of former fighters.

Conceding that the process was ‘risky’, Fatos Makolli, Kosovo’s National Coordinator for Countering Terrorism, told German Deutsche Welle on November 10: “We can control this risk because we know about the people. We try the guilty ones and we try to do our best to integrate others into the community.”

Music told BIRN: “This issue should not be politicised; the issue should be left to the experts”.

Ozpek said the EU should take care to help Balkan states.

“The Balkans is part of the European security system; peace and security in the Balkans is a concern of Europe,” he said. “If Europe wants to be secured it should support Balkan security.”

Music, however, was sceptical of any coordinated international solution to the issue.

“As things stand now, these things will generally take place through bilateral or interstate activities,” he said. “Turkey should show more patience before deciding on one-sided moves, although the situation in Turkey is extremely complex.”

Risky strategy

Turkish soldiers wait in their tanks as they prepare for a military operation at the Syrian border. Photo: EPA/SEDAT SUNA

Turkey is believed to hold some 1,200 former ISIS fighters, while Kurdish forces in Syria still control more than 10,000 former fighters and their relatives.

But, Ozpek, said, “We still do not know the real numbers of ISIS fighters and their families in prisons and camps.”

It is not known how many escaped when Kurdish forces retreated in the face of advancing Turkish forces, an operation Ankara said was designed to create a buffer zone and ease the refugee burden on Turkey. The EU has condemned the operation.

“Western countries did not support Turkey’s operation in Syria and Turkey was accepted as responsible for escaped ISIS prisoners,” Ozpek said.

“For that reason, Erdogan now wants to be the one who protects the world from ISIS fighters. He wants to escalate the crisis for negotiations and then he will try to solve the problem.”

Turkey currently hosts more than five million refugees, four million of them Syrians.

Ozpek said Erdogan’s strategy carried great risk. “If these negotiations are successful, Turkey will be the one who provides security for Europe, but if they fail Turkey will be the one undermining European security.”